Pakistan’s Role in Afghanistan!!

With the emergence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, Pakistan emerged victoriously. The great dilemma Pakistan suffers is how to handle this victory and keep it under control. With Pakistan gaining much, it would have much more to stake.

First, Pakistan is strong enough to destabilize Afghanistan but not powerful enough to construct a stable political order across the Durand Line. Pakistan did have border issues with Afghanistan; Afghanistan does not recognize the Durand line. Pakistan took part in Afghanistan Nationalism by supporting the Taliban. However, recent Taliban comments on Durand’s line of non-recognition will add Pakistan into disarray. Pakistan would have another issue like the Balochistan nationalist group, and there would be more sect formation in Pakistan.

Second, the financial problem Pakistan suffers, Pakistan would need to manage the migration crises, the food supply, and other financial services to Afghanistan. However, FATF’s grey-listed Pakistan would be insufficient and may turn dice on opposite sides- which may destroy world peace.

Third, Iran has already cut the deal and allows the export of its abundant oil in exchange for cash to Afghanistan. This trade of Iran would make other countries trade with Afghanistan. The Taliban occupied Afghanistan would try to collect as many resources as it needs. America will hold many cards with him to which the survival of Afghanistan depends- be it CAATSA, American control on Afghanistan remittances, existing and future UN and treasury sanctions regime. Pakistan will have to play cautiously, get out of FATF’s grey list successfully, or will be pushed to the black list.

Fourth, the formation of government in Afghanistan, where Pakistan is mediating. It has been almost three weeks, and the Taliban could not make a government. Without it, the responsibility and governance of Afghanistan are in great disarray. Afghanistan firmly held that Taliban 2.0 would give rights to women- but without government, there wouldn’t be any checks and will bring much more disarray in the daily lives of Afghanistan. It would be a matter to look upon how Pakistan mediates in the formation of the government. Undoubtedly, Pakistan is fearful of large refugee movements across the Durand Line, can be expected to lean on these leaders on government formation and to put forward a more moderate face.

Finally, China, Russia, and Pakistan- these three players would cooperate to have a significant role in Afghanistan. China’s belt and road initiatives will be of interest to Afghanistan. It would be more interesting how Pakistan and China manage to go ahead with the Belt and Road initiative. Russia and China will use the Taliban against America.

Islamabad’s victory in Kabul might make it a bigger nuisance for Asia. However, it is unlikely to reverse the steady decline of Pakistan’s comprehensive national power over decades.